2
Duc De Roche
4yo Gelding · 10-5
Auteuil · Prix The Fellow - Marquise De Moratalla Chase (Grade 3) · 2m 5f 191y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.5
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Auteuil | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | +0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Auteuil | 1 | 5th | 5th | +0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Auteuil | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Auteuil | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Auteuil | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Auteuil | ? | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength42%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 91% | +0.01 |
| 23/09/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 25/10/2025 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 33% | -0.57 |
| 15/11/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 89% | +0.28 |
| 07/12/2025 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 07/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 60% | -0.32 |
| 28/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 19/04/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 17/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |