8
Edamura
4yo Gelding · 10-5
Auteuil · Prix The Fellow - Marquise De Moratalla Chase (Grade 3) · 2m 5f 191y
#7
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Compiegne | 3 | 2nd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-05-17 | Auteuil | 1 | +0 | ||
| 2026-04-19 | Auteuil | 1 | 4th | 4th | +0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Auteuil | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Auteuil | 1 | 0 | ||
| 2025-11-28 | Compiegne | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength63%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 10/09/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 27/09/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 92% | +0.34 |
| 12/10/2025 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 25/10/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 28/11/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 22/03/2026 | 1st | 22/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 19/04/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 09/09/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 90% | -0.05 |