3
French Lover
4yo Gelding · 10-5
Auteuil · Prix The Fellow - Marquise De Moratalla Chase (Grade 3) · 2m 5f 191y
#8
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.4
Today:
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Dieppe | 4 | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-05-16 | Auteuil | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-04-13 | Auteuil | 1 | 5th | 6th | −0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Fontainebleau | 4 | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-02-14 | Auteuil | 2 | 5th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-11-28 | Compiegne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength43%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 28/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 91% | +0.44 |
| 14/02/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 56% | -0.13 |
| 29/03/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 13/04/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 30/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |