10
Melisse Du Mathan
4yo Filly · 10-1
Auteuil · Prix The Fellow - Marquise De Moratalla Chase (Grade 3) · 2m 5f 191y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Auteuil | 1 | +0 | ||
| 2026-04-09 | Auteuil | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Auteuil | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Auteuil | ? | 3rd | 3rd | +0 |
| 2025-10-12 | Auteuil | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Auteuil | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength63%
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/03/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 70% | -0.09 |
| 03/04/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 13/09/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 12/10/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 63% | -0.23 |
| 15/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 14/03/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 09/04/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |