IvyArcIvyArc
3

Mirmillon

4yo Gelding · 11-0

Auteuil · Prix Patrick Lec Hurdle · 2m 1f 196y

#1

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

97%

Place Prob

84%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 1.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Machecoul 10/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 1m6f146y Hvy 14110/02C53 @ Nantes 11/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 2m1f87y Ver 14711/0532 @ Nantes 29/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 2m1f87y GS 14729/052projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-29Nantes21st1st0
2026-05-11Nantes32nd2nd0
2026-02-10Machecoul?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0211/0529/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength89%

Delivery trend +4.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/02/20262nd2/189%89%-0.01
11/05/20262nd16/116%92%+0.76
29/05/20261st6/492%100%+0.08