IvyArcIvyArc
2

Goliath Du Rheu

7yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 149

Auteuil · Prix Richard Et Robert Hennessy Chase (Grade 3) · 2m 5f 191y

#3

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 2.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Auteuil 15/10/2022 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 2m1f196y Sft 145 · HIGHER CLASS15/10C?C0 @ Auteuil 12/11/2022 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 2m1f196y Hvy 145 · HIGHER CLASSC1 @ Auteuil 11/03/2023 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 2m1f87y Sft 14311/03C1C1 @ Auteuil 02/04/2023 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 2m5f191y Ver 145C0 @ Auteuil 23/04/2023 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 2m5f191y Sft 143 · HIGHER CLASS23/04C?C1 @ Auteuil 23/09/2023 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 149 · 2m5f191y Ver 150 · below its mark23/09/2023 · OR 149 parC0 @ Auteuil 24/02/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 2m1f196y Hvy 15024/02C?C0 @ Auteuil 30/03/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 149 · 2m5f191y Hvy 145 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/03/2025 · OR 149 parC0 @ Auteuil 18/05/2025 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 149 · 3m5f181y Hvy 150 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/05/2025 · OR 149 par18/05C?OR 149projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-05-18Auteuil?10th10th+0
2025-03-30Auteuil?1st1st+0
2025-02-24Auteuil?1st1st0
2023-09-23Auteuil?2nd2nd0
2023-04-23Auteuil?1st1st+0
2023-04-02Auteuil?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/102/0424/0218/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength50%

Delivery trend -1.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/10/20223rd4/179%75%-0.04
12/11/20222nd5/287%88%+0.01
11/03/20232nd5/493%88%-0.06
02/04/20232nd6/492%88%-0.05
23/04/20231st1/195%100%+0.05
23/09/20232nd11/486%80%-0.06
24/02/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
30/03/20251st15/890%100%+0.10
18/05/202510th7/282%31%-0.51