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10

Caledonian Dream

4yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 45

Beverley · Churchill Tyres Apprentice Handicap · 1m 1f 207y

#8

Rank

Odds

17/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Signed off for Alan Brown with a very good second over C&D last June but hasn't offered much in 3 outings for new yard this year.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 01/10/2024 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 58 · 6f Std 133 · below its mark01/10/2024 · OR 58 par1/106OR 586 @ Newcastle 16/11/2024 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 55 · 6f Std 131 · below its mark16/11/2024 · OR 55 par6 @ Newcastle 06/12/2024 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 52 · 1m5y Std 132 · beat its mark06/12/2024 · OR 52 par6/126OR 526 @ Redcar 19/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 49 · 7f Goo 124 · beat its mark19/05/2025 · OR 49 par6 @ Ripon 04/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 48 · 1m Gd 119 · beat its mark04/06/2025 · OR 48 par4/066OR 486 @ Beverley 24/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 46 · 1m1f207y GF 126 · beat its mark24/06/2025 · OR 46 par6 @ Beverley 30/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 46 · 1m100y Goo 126 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 46 par30/056OR 466 @ Musselburgh 24/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 46 · 1m2y Gd 126 · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Thirsk 14/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 45 · 1m4f8y Goo 129 · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 45 par14/096OR 45projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Thirsk66th6th0
2026-08-24Musselburgh610th10th0
2026-05-30Beverley611th11th0
2025-06-24Beverley62nd2nd0
2025-06-04Ripon67th7th0
2025-05-19Redcar66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/1019/0530/0514/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength79%

Delivery trend +3.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/10/202412th16/116%0%-0.16
16/11/202411th40/10%9%+0.09
06/12/20247th25/10%40%+0.40
19/05/20256th33/10%44%+0.44
04/06/20257th28/10%25%+0.25
24/06/20252nd7/163%88%+0.24
30/05/202611th25/10%0%0.00
24/08/202610th66/10%25%+0.25
14/09/20266th40/10%55%+0.55