12
Captain Bruce
3yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 45
Beverley · Churchill Tyres Apprentice Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#6
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 7.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Ripon | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Pontefract | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Ripon | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Beverley | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Southwell | 6 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Newcastle | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength30%
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 02/10/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 23/10/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |
| 21/03/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/04/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/05/2026 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/05/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 29/06/2026 | 8th | 150/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 31/08/2026 | 6th | 150/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |