IvyArcIvyArc
11

Furrst Lady

4yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 45

Beverley · Churchill Tyres Apprentice Handicap · 1m 1f 207y

#11

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★ Timeform

Commentary

Has shown more temperament than ability.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength15%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 8.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 17/06/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 6f16y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS17/0655 @ Ripon 07/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 1m Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS7/0754 @ Newcastle 01/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 7f14y Std 137 · HIGHER CLASS1/0546 @ Redcar 26/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 45 · 5f Goo 126 · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 45 par26/056OR 456 @ Wetherby 15/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 45 · 5f110y Goo 126 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 45 par15/066OR 456 @ Beverley 12/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 45 · 7f75y Goo 126 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 45 par12/086OR 456 @ Newcastle 02/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 45 · 1m5y Std 126 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 45 par2/096OR 45projClass-projected finish: 11th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Newcastle68th8th0
2026-08-12Beverley69th9th0
2026-06-15Wetherby69th9th0
2026-05-26Redcar68th8th0
2026-05-01Newcastle410th8th+2
2025-07-07Ripon57th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0626/052/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 7-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength30%

Delivery trend +4.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/06/20258th40/10%0%0.00
07/07/20257th250/10%0%0.00
01/05/202610th400/10%0%0.00
26/05/20268th50/10%22%+0.22
15/06/20269th100/10%0%0.00
12/08/20269th100/10%33%+0.33
02/09/20268th66/10%22%+0.22