IvyArcIvyArc
9

Golden Samba

4yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 45

Beverley · Churchill Tyres Apprentice Handicap · 1m 1f 207y

#7

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden after 11 starts but not long with this yard. Finished 4¾ lengths behind Star Suepreme when seventh over 8.5f here last week but the return to a longer trip should suit.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Ffos Las 29/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 1m2f Sft 124 · HIGHER CLASS29/0656 @ Bath 03/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 45 · 1m6f Sft 121 · beat its mark03/09/2025 · OR 45 par6 @ Wolverhampton 06/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 45 · 1m5f219y Std 121 · beat its mark06/04/2026 · OR 45 par6/046OR 456 @ Salisbury 03/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 45 · 1m6f44y GF 116 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Lingfield 18/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 45 · 2m68y Goo 120 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 45 par18/056OR 456 @ Pontefract 08/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 45 · 2m1f27y Goo 116 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Kempton 29/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 45 · 1m7f218y Sta 122 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 45 par29/066OR 456 @ Ripon 31/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 44 · 1m1f170y Sft 135 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 44 par6 @ Beverley 16/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 45 · 1m100y Goo 127 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 45 par16/096OR 45projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Beverley67th7th0
2026-08-31Ripon64th4th0
2026-06-29Kempton66th6th0
2026-06-08Pontefract67th7th0
2026-05-18Lingfield63rd3rd0
2026-05-03Salisbury64th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/063/0529/0616/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength48%

Delivery trend -2.3% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/06/20256th250/10%0%0.00
03/09/20253rd50/10%71%+0.71
06/04/20268th28/10%22%+0.22
03/05/20264th9/153%25%-0.28
18/05/20263rd12/137%78%+0.41
08/06/20267th11/142%45%+0.03
29/06/20266th9/276%17%-0.60
31/08/20264th11/142%67%+0.25
16/09/20267th20/10%33%+0.33