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Lightning Galaxy

4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 50

Beverley · Churchill Tyres Apprentice Handicap · 1m 1f 207y

#9

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Remains winless. Creditable fourth over this trip at Ayr last month but not so good at Carlisle and Redcar since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength49%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Doncaster 16/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 68 · 7f213y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/08/2025 · OR 68 par16/085OR 685 @ Newcastle 07/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 68 · 1m5y Std 136 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/11/2025 · OR 68 par5 @ Thirsk 02/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 65 · 7f218y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 65 par2/055OR 655 @ Carlisle 18/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 63 · 5f182y GS 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Carlisle 15/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 60 · 6f195y Goo 130 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 60 par15/066OR 606 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 57 · 1m Gd 136 · below its mark06/07/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Ayr 10/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 55 · 1m2f Goo 132 · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 55 par10/086OR 556 @ Carlisle 27/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 54 · 1m3f39y Goo 132 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 54 par5 @ Redcar 09/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 52 · 1m2f1y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 52 par9/095OR 52projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Redcar56th5th+1
2026-08-27Carlisle68th8th0
2026-08-10Ayr64th4th0
2026-07-06Ayr69th9th0
2026-06-15Carlisle65th5th0
2026-05-18Carlisle59th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0818/0510/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength94%

Delivery trend +5.7% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/08/20257th11/271%0%-0.71
07/11/202510th28/10%0%0.00
02/05/20269th12/137%0%-0.37
18/05/20269th28/10%27%+0.27
15/06/20265th12/137%43%+0.06
06/07/20269th10/147%11%-0.36
10/08/20264th33/10%73%+0.73
27/08/20268th5/174%13%-0.61
09/09/20266th16/116%38%+0.22