7
Quirke On Parole
4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 47
Beverley · Churchill Tyres Apprentice Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
56%
Place Prob
40%
Rank
#2
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Ripon | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Pontefract | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Southwell | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Nottingham | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Beverley | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Ripon | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength54%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 18/09/2025 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 15/04/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 17/05/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 33% | -0.09 |
| 16/06/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 23/07/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 05/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 31/08/2026 | 10th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |