5
Soham's Roger
4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 47
Beverley · Churchill Tyres Apprentice Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#12
Rank
Odds
100/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength44%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 8.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Newcastle | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Redcar | 6 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-08-12 | Hamilton | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-08-02 | Thirsk | 4 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-07-02 | Thirsk | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 9-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength8%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07/2025 | 10th | 300/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/08/2025 | 7th | 200/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 12/08/2025 | 4th | 250/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 27/10/2025 | 12th | 66/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 02/09/2026 | 9th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |