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Tiberio Force

7yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 52

Beverley · Churchill Tyres Apprentice Handicap · 1m 1f 207y

#1

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

28%

Place Prob

28%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back to winning ways in Ripon classified event (1¼m, soft) 22 days ago, his second successive success in that contest. After last year's win he went on to finish second in a handicap on his next start. Enters calculations.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength47%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 28/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 52 · 1m4f98y Std 132 · beat its mark28/09/2025 · OR 52 par28/096OR 526 @ Redcar 27/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 52 · 1m2f1y Goo 132 · beat its mark27/10/2025 · OR 52 par6 @ Wolverhampton 01/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 51 · 1m1f104y Std 126 · beat its mark01/12/2025 · OR 51 par1/126OR 515 @ Ripon 08/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 50 · 1m1f170y Gd 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 50 par5 @ Ripon 17/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 50 · 1m1f170y Goo 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 50 par17/055OR 506 @ Redcar 25/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 50 · 1m2f1y Goo 130 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 48 · 1m2f42y Sta 135 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 48 par31/076OR 486 @ Ripon 15/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 45 · 1m1f170y Goo 126 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Ripon 31/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 44 · 1m1f170y Sft 135 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 44 par31/086OR 44projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Ripon61st1st0
2026-08-15Ripon69th9th0
2026-07-31Newcastle68th8th0
2026-05-25Redcar67th7th0
2026-05-17Ripon56th5th+1
2026-05-08Ripon56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/098/0531/0731/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength88%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/09/20259th25/10%38%+0.38
27/10/20259th12/137%33%-0.04
01/12/20256th16/116%55%+0.39
08/05/20266th80/10%55%+0.55
17/05/20266th22/10%50%+0.50
25/05/20267th5/174%45%-0.28
31/07/20268th11/142%22%-0.20
15/08/20269th25/10%33%+0.33
31/08/20261st7/163%100%+0.37