Twin And Tonic

3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 45

Beverley · Churchill Tyres Apprentice Handicap · 1m 1f 207y

#10

Rank

Odds

80/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#10

★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼2

Strength73%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 8.0)

Highest class: 3

Recent avg: C4.0

Today: 6

Class gap: +2.0

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-31	Ripon	6	8th	8th	0	2.0
2026-07-23	Doncaster	3	4th	0th	+3	9.6
2026-07-07	Pontefract	3	9th	5th	+3	4.6
2026-06-15	Wetherby	4	11th	9th	+2	1.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 8-11 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength22%

Delivery trend +5.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
15/06/2026	11th	150/1	0%	0%	0.00
07/07/2026	9th	300/1	0%	11%	+0.11
23/07/2026	4th	250/1	0%	0%	0.00
31/08/2026	8th	150/1	0%	22%	+0.22