4
Rum Point
2yo Gelding · 9-5
Beverley · Christmas Parties R Us Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 5f
#10
Rank
Odds
200/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength73%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 9.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Redcar | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-09-05 | Thirsk | 2 | 11th | 7th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 11-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength17%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 17% | +0.11 |
| 15/09/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |