4
Toca Madera
5yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 94
Beverley · Eddie And Violet Smith Conditions Stakes (GBB Race) · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 2
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Doncaster | 2 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Goodwood | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | York | 2 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | York | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Goodwood | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Goodwood | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength91%
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 28/06/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 11/07/2026 | 12th | 28/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 28/07/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 86% | +0.44 |
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |
| 22/08/2026 | 16th | 18/1 | 5% | 21% | +0.16 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 12/09/2026 | 12th | 5/1 | 74% | 45% | -0.29 |