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6

Sparkling Wine

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 45

Beverley · John Allinson 90th Birthday Handicap · 5f

#5

Rank

Odds

22/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fared considerably better than previously when a narrow second over C&D in July but hasn't been in anything like the same form in trio of starts since. Has it to prove quickly returned to the minimum trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Beverley 16/04/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 5f Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS16/0454 @ Ripon 08/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 6f Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Ripon 17/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS17/0546 @ Catterick 11/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 45 · 5f GS 121 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Beverley 23/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 45 · 5f Goo 121 · beat its mark23/06/2026 · OR 45 par23/066OR 456 @ Beverley 14/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 45 · 5f Goo 121 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Southwell 23/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 45 · 4f214y Std 126 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 45 par23/076OR 456 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 47 · 5f Sta 123 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Redcar 22/08/2026 · Pos 15th of 16 · OR 46 · 5f217y Goo 123 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 46 par22/086OR 46projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Redcar615th15th0
2026-07-25Newcastle610th10th0
2026-07-23Southwell64th4th0
2026-07-14Beverley62nd2nd0
2026-06-23Beverley65th5th0
2026-06-11Catterick62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0411/0623/0722/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 5-6 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.4% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/04/20258th80/10%36%+0.36
08/05/20264th40/10%40%+0.40
17/05/20267th33/10%14%+0.14
11/06/20262nd15/261%80%+0.19
23/06/20265th11/271%20%-0.51
14/07/20262nd8/158%86%+0.28
23/07/20264th9/488%50%-0.38
25/07/202610th16/116%0%-0.16
22/08/202615th25/10%7%+0.07