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2

Count Palatine

5yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 81

Beverley · Fango Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 75y

#6

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Produced a career best when scoring at Carlisle (7f, good to soft) last month. Stamina stretched over 8.5f here on heavy since and should find this test more suitable.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ayr 30/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 77 · 7f50y Sft 137 · beat its mark30/09/2025 · OR 77 par30/094OR 773 @ Leicester 14/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 82 · 7f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 82 par4 @ Thirsk 18/04/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 82 · 7f Goo 132 · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 82 par18/044OR 823 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 81 · 7f218y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 80 · 7f173y Goo 135 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 80 par30/054OR 804 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 14th of 20 · OR 80 · 7f Gd 135 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 79 · 1m Goo 129 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 79 par8/084OR 794 @ Carlisle 19/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 78 · 6f195y Goo 133 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Beverley 30/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 81 · 1m100y Hvy 131 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 81 par30/084OR 81projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Beverley46th6th0
2026-08-19Carlisle41st1st0
2026-08-08Ayr46th6th0
2026-06-12York414th14th0
2026-05-30Carlisle43rd3rd0
2026-05-16Thirsk310th9th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0916/058/0830/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength98%

Delivery trend -2.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/09/20251st14/126%100%+0.74
14/10/20252nd28/10%93%+0.93
18/04/202613th25/10%0%0.00
16/05/202610th40/10%25%+0.25
30/05/20263rd16/116%78%+0.62
12/06/202614th40/10%32%+0.32
08/08/20266th25/10%44%+0.44
19/08/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
30/08/20266th20/10%50%+0.50