3
Misunderstood
4yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 81
Beverley · Fango Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 75y
#2
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Thirsk | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Beverley | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Carlisle | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Musselburgh | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | York | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength81%
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 21/05/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 14% | +0.09 |
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 06/07/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 24/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 65% | +0.28 |
| 07/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 70% | -0.09 |
| 19/08/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 56% | -0.15 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 05/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |