IvyArcIvyArc
9

Supreme Clarets

3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 73

Beverley · Fango Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 75y

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

85%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

It took him a while to get off the mark but now on a hat-trick after wins at Ayr (good to firm) and over C&D (heavy) last month. A further 3 lb rise seems unlikely to prevent a bold bid.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength23%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Newmarket 11/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 70 · 7f Goo 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/10/2025 · OR 70 par11/103OR 705 @ Musselburgh 12/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 68 · 1m2y Gd 129 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 68 par4 @ Wetherby 26/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 66 · 7f Goo 116 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 66 par26/044OR 665 @ Haydock 21/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 66 · 6f212y Sft 132 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 66 par6 @ Musselburgh 22/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 65 · 7f15y Gd 134 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 65 par22/066OR 655 @ Carlisle 09/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 65 · 6f195y Goo 130 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 65 par4 @ Chester 25/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 65 · 7f127y Goo 120 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 65 par25/074OR 655 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 65 · 7f50y Goo 131 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 65 par4 @ Beverley 29/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 70 · 7f75y Sft 125 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 70 par29/084OR 70projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Beverley41st1st0
2026-08-08Ayr51st2nd−1
2026-07-25Chester44th4th0
2026-07-09Carlisle52nd3rd−1
2026-06-22Musselburgh62nd4th−2
2026-05-21Haydock59th10th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/1021/0525/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength95%

Delivery trend +0.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/10/20256th40/10%17%+0.17
12/04/20267th10/147%33%-0.14
26/04/20264th18/15%70%+0.65
21/05/20269th5/174%27%-0.46
22/06/20262nd10/147%88%+0.40
09/07/20262nd10/382%89%+0.06
25/07/20264th6/168%57%-0.11
08/08/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
29/08/20261st10/382%100%+0.18