7
This Farh
4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 74
Beverley · Fango Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 75y
#4
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Beverley | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Chepstow | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Beverley | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Leicester | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-13 | Leicester | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Lingfield | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 7-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/12/2025 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 36% | +0.31 |
| 14/01/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 29% | -0.32 |
| 26/02/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 20/03/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 44% | -0.21 |
| 13/04/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 23/06/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 20% | -0.68 |