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Glenfinnan

6yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 82

Beverley · Fango Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 75y

#2

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

17%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Two C&D wins this year, the latter in August on good ground. Pulled too hard when last of 8 at Ascot since but respected back here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength75%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 7.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Haydock 09/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 82 · 6f212y Gd 132 · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 82 par9/054OR 823 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 80 · 7f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Beverley 30/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 78 · 7f96y Goo 128 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 78 par30/054OR 783 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 19 · OR 79 · 7f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Carlisle 24/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 79 · 7f173y GF 136 · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 79 par24/064OR 794 @ Beverley 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 79 · 7f96y Goo 134 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 79 par3 @ Thirsk 01/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR 79 · 7f Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 79 par1/083OR 794 @ Beverley 12/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 78 · 7f75y Goo 140 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 78 par2 @ Ascot 05/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 82 · 7f Goo 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 82 par5/092OR 82projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Ascot28th6th+2
2026-08-12Beverley41st1st0
2026-08-01Thirsk312th11th+1
2026-07-04Beverley42nd2nd0
2026-06-24Carlisle44th4th0
2026-06-13York39th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0513/061/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/05/20267th11/142%33%-0.09
16/05/20267th11/142%45%+0.03
30/05/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
13/06/20269th33/10%56%+0.56
24/06/20264th9/153%77%+0.24
04/07/20262nd10/382%86%+0.03
01/08/202612th25/10%21%+0.21
12/08/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
05/09/20268th33/10%0%0.00