3
Mudamer
7yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 78
Beverley · Fango Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 75y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Beverley | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Catterick | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Doncaster | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thirsk | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Thirsk | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Newcastle | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength38%
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 18/10/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 05/11/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 27/03/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 18/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 82% | -0.01 |
| 16/05/2026 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 9% | -0.44 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 15/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 29/08/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |