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2

Obelix

6yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 80

Beverley · Fango Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 75y

#5

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back to winning ways at Wetherby (7f) in June and respectable fourths over C&D (good) and at Thirsk (good to soft) on last 2 outings. Likely to be on the premises.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 08/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 84 · 7f Sta 132 · beat its mark08/10/2025 · OR 84 par8/104OR 844 @ Newcastle 27/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 82 · 7f14y Sta 137 · below its mark27/10/2025 · OR 82 par4 @ York 15/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 22 · OR 80 · 7f Gd 135 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 80 par15/054OR 804 @ Wetherby 04/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 78 · 7f Goo 133 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Doncaster 20/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 83 · 7f6y GF 133 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 83 par20/064OR 834 @ Chester 11/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 83 · 7f127y Goo 140 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 83 par3 @ Thirsk 01/08/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR 82 · 7f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 82 par1/083OR 824 @ Beverley 12/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 81 · 7f75y Goo 143 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ Thirsk 05/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 81 · 7f Goo 136 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 81 par5/094OR 81projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Thirsk44th4th0
2026-08-12Beverley44th4th0
2026-08-01Thirsk313th12th+1
2026-07-11Chester45th5th0
2026-06-20Doncaster45th5th0
2026-06-04Wetherby41st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/104/061/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength57%

Delivery trend -5.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/10/20258th14/126%46%+0.20
27/10/20259th14/126%27%+0.01
15/05/202612th14/126%48%+0.21
04/06/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
20/06/20265th13/266%60%-0.06
11/07/20265th11/486%50%-0.36
01/08/202613th18/15%14%+0.09
12/08/20264th3/184%67%-0.18
05/09/20264th4/179%57%-0.22