5

Star Material

3yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 80

Beverley · Fango Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 75y

#8

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Refused to race at Redcar in July and all but did the same at Newcastle since. One to avoid.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move1
Strength51%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.1
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Pontefract 30/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 5f3y Goo 13330/0445 @ Ripon 04/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 5f Gd 1331 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2025 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR - · 5f GF 129 · HIGHER CLASS19/0612 @ Ayr 19/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 85 · 6f Sft 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 85 par1 @ York 11/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 86 · 6f Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/10/2025 · OR 86 par11/101OR 863 @ Thirsk 18/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 85 · 5f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 85 par3 @ Chester 06/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 84 · 6f17y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/05/2026 · OR 84 par6/053OR 844 @ Chepstow 03/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 82 · 6f16y Goo 137 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Newcastle 20/08/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 82 · 5f Std 140 · below its mark20/08/2026 · OR 82 par20/084OR 82projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20Newcastle413th13th0
2026-07-29Redcar40
2026-07-03Chepstow43rd3rd0
2026-05-06Chester38th7th+1
2026-04-18Thirsk39th8th+1
2025-10-11York111th7th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0419/096/0520/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength10%

Delivery trend -1.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/04/20252nd1/195%83%-0.11
04/06/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
19/06/202515th66/10%0%0.00
19/09/20252nd25/10%88%+0.88
11/10/202511th20/10%17%+0.17
18/04/20269th18/15%38%+0.33
06/05/20268th11/142%36%-0.06
03/07/20263rd9/153%71%+0.19
20/08/202613th16/116%0%-0.16