4
Tattie Bogle
4yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 77
Beverley · Fango Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 75y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
96%
Place Prob
83%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Brighton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-12 | Beverley | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Lingfield | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Beverley | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Beverley | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thirsk | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength70%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 14% | -0.71 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 08/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 83% | +0.41 |
| 12/08/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |