4

Blue Mantle

3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 65

Beverley · End Of Season Handicap · 1m 100y

#7

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Went close in 7f Newcastle maiden in March. Overdid the forcing tactics on 1m Haydock handicap debut in May and absent since finishing sixth of 8 at Ayr (7f) the following month (finished lame). Gelded ahead of this and market may well prove a useful guide.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move1
Strength76%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.6
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.4
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Hamilton 16/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 6f6y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS16/0544 @ Newcastle 12/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 7f14y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS12/0345 @ Southwell 05/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 7f14y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS5/0455 @ Haydock 22/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 70 · 7f212y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/05/2026 · OR 70 par22/055OR 705 @ Ayr 20/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 68 · 7f50y Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 68 par20/065OR 68projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-20Ayr56th5th+1
2026-05-22Haydock511th10th+1
2026-04-05Southwell55th4th+1
2026-03-12Newcastle42nd0th+2
2025-05-16Hamilton43rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0512/035/0422/0520/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength11%

Delivery trend +4.6% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/05/20253rd15/261%67%+0.06
12/03/20262nd11/1094%88%-0.07
05/04/20265th7/491%56%-0.35
22/05/202611th18/15%0%-0.05
20/06/20266th28/10%29%+0.29