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5

Elizabetty

3yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 64

Beverley · End Of Season Handicap · 1m 100y

#8

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Inns Of Court filly who showed fair form when landing 8-runner Newcastle (7f) novice in January. Hasn't proved the easiest of conveyances since, though, always behind on back of 5 months off returned to turf at Musselburgh (7f) 10 days ago. Cheekpieces now reached for.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength67%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 26/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 7f14y Sta 126 · HIGHER CLASS26/0744 @ Ayr 11/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 7f50y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Beverley 17/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 71 · 7f96y Sft 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/09/2025 · OR 71 par17/094OR 714 @ Newcastle 01/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 68 · 6f Std 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/01/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Newcastle 22/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 65 · 7f14y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/01/2026 · OR 65 par22/015OR 655 @ Newcastle 06/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 69 · 1m5y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Newcastle 05/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 69 · 6f Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/03/2026 · OR 69 par5/035OR 694 @ Lingfield 03/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 68 · 7f1y Std 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Musselburgh 12/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 67 · 7f15y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 67 par12/095OR 67projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Musselburgh510th9th+1
2026-04-03Lingfield410th8th+2
2026-03-05Newcastle59th8th+1
2026-02-06Newcastle53rd2nd+1
2026-01-22Newcastle51st0th+1
2026-01-01Newcastle47th5th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/071/015/0312/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 7-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -4.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/07/20255th11/142%56%+0.13
11/08/20252nd14/126%83%+0.57
17/09/20257th7/491%14%-0.77
01/01/20267th18/15%14%+0.09
22/01/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
06/02/20263rd9/276%67%-0.10
05/03/20269th6/168%20%-0.48
03/04/202610th12/137%18%-0.19
12/09/202610th25/10%0%0.00