10
Horwich
3yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 59
Beverley · End Of Season Handicap · 1m 100y
#9
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Musselburgh | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Ripon | 6 | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-21 | Nottingham | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Wetherby | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 27% | -0.20 |
| 25/04/2026 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/05/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 29/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 15/06/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 06/07/2026 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/08/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 07/09/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 20% | +0.15 |