Only Dream Big
3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 62
Beverley · End Of Season Handicap · 1m 100y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Carlisle | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-09-04 | Haydock | 5 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-08-25 | Musselburgh | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Carlisle | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Redcar | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-10 | York | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 08/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 29/07/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 17% | -0.25 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 25/08/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 89% | +0.73 |
| 09/09/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |