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Pilgrim's Progress

3yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 65

Beverley · End Of Season Handicap · 1m 100y

#4

Rank

Odds

22/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Quickly resumed her progress when second in a Windsor maiden (5f) in August. Disappointed next time but best not judged harshly on her latest Salisbury fifth having been drawn furthest away from where the main action developed. Steps up in trip now.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength78%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 24/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 6f Sta 128 · HIGHER CLASS24/0944 @ Newbury 24/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 6f110y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Lingfield 17/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 5f6y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS17/1255 @ Lingfield 13/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 68 · 6f1y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Lingfield 25/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 68 · 6f GF 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/07/2026 · OR 68 par25/075OR 684 @ Windsor 03/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 67 · 5f21y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Windsor 13/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 67 · 6f12y GF 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 67 par13/085OR 675 @ Salisbury 11/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 67 · 6f Sft 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 67 par11/095OR 67projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Salisbury55th4th+1
2026-08-13Windsor58th7th+1
2026-08-03Windsor42nd0th+2
2026-07-25Lingfield57th6th+1
2026-07-13Lingfield52nd1st+1
2025-12-17Lingfield52nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0913/0713/0811/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength25%

Delivery trend +0.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/09/202510th25/10%0%0.00
24/10/20254th11/142%57%+0.15
17/12/20252nd13/266%86%+0.20
13/07/20262nd10/147%83%+0.36
25/07/20267th8/158%0%-0.58
03/08/20262nd9/488%80%-0.08
13/08/20268th17/255%30%-0.25
11/09/20265th33/10%64%+0.64