8
Snaafy
3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 61
Beverley · End Of Season Handicap · 1m 100y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength49%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Doncaster | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA64 | 9th | 10th | −0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Pontefract | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Lingfield | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-01-06 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength71%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/11/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 08/12/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 30/12/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 06/01/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 17/01/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 17/07/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 83% | +0.28 |
| 31/07/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 53% | +0.37 |
| 15/08/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 15/09/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 27% | +0.22 |