2
Turtle Reef
3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 65
Beverley · End Of Season Handicap · 1m 100y
#6
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength69%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Hamilton | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Newbury | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Doncaster | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-12-27 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 12th | 10th | +2 |
| 2025-11-27 | Newcastle | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-11-06 | Newcastle | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 10-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -12.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 27/11/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 27/12/2025 | 12th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 09/07/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 11/08/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 13% | -0.40 |