Tap The Prize
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 40
Fairmount Park · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-05-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-04-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/2026 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 09/03/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 29/03/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 14/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 12/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 26/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 14/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |