4
Grazen Gator
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 57
Fairmount Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#8
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-16 | Sunland Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Sunland Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/12/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 12/01/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 16/02/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 01/03/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 16/03/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 43% | -0.49 |
| 28/04/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 21/07/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 25/08/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |