Hot Dame
8yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 62
Fairmount Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-10-16 | Hawthorne | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-09-25 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/08/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 09/09/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 25/09/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 16/10/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/04/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 25/07/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 18/08/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |