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7

Izzy's Monster

6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 80

Fairmount Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y

#2

Rank

Odds

6/4

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength58%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Hawthorne 13/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 86 · 1m70y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/07/2025 · OR 86 par13/07C7OR 86C7 @ Hawthorne 25/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 85 · 1m110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/09/2025 · OR 85 parC8 @ Hawthorne 03/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 86 · 1m110y Fm 122 · below its mark03/11/2025 · OR 86 par3/11C8OR 86C7 @ Fair Grounds 07/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 89 · 1m 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/12/2025 · OR 89 parC8 @ Fair Grounds 10/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 89 · 1m70y Slo 121 · below its mark10/01/2026 · OR 89 par10/01C8OR 89C7 @ Fair Grounds 25/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 91 · 1m 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/01/2026 · OR 91 parC7 @ Fair Grounds 22/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 89 · 7f110y Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/02/2026 · OR 89 par22/02C7OR 89C7 @ Hawthorne 14/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 86 · 1m70y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 86 parC7 @ Fairmount Park 07/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 78 · 1m 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/07/2026 · OR 78 par7/07C7OR 78projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-07Fairmount Park?5th4th+1
2026-06-14Hawthorne?5th4th+1
2026-02-22Fair Grounds?3rd2nd+1
2026-01-25Fair Grounds?1st0th+1
2026-01-10Fair Grounds?2nd2nd0
2025-12-07Fair Grounds?2nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/077/1222/027/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength59%

Delivery trend -4.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/07/20252nd2/189%86%-0.04
25/09/20253rd15/890%50%-0.40
03/11/20255th25/10%43%+0.43
07/12/20252nd7/491%83%-0.07
10/01/20262nd13/891%83%-0.08
25/01/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
22/02/20263rd9/488%80%-0.08
14/06/20265th9/276%0%-0.76
07/07/20265th10/147%33%-0.14