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Retail Therapy

5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 68

Fairmount Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Turfway Park 13/03/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 71 · 1m Fas 125 · below its mark13/03/2025 · OR 71 par13/03C8OR 71C8 @ Turfway Park 28/03/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 70 · 6f Fas 124 · below its mark28/03/2025 · OR 70 parC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 23/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 78 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark23/04/2025 · OR 78 par23/04C8OR 78C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 07/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 78 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark07/05/2025 · OR 78 parC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 28/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 71 · 6f Slo 122 · below its mark28/05/2025 · OR 71 par28/05C8OR 71C7 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 11/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 79 · 6f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/11/2025 · OR 79 parC7 @ Turfway Park 01/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 80 · 6f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/01/2026 · OR 80 par1/01C7OR 80C7 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 15/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 79 · 6f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/04/2026 · OR 79 parC8 @ Fairmount Park 18/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 68 · 1m 124 · below its mark18/08/2026 · OR 68 par18/08C8OR 68projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-18Fairmount Park?2nd2nd0
2026-04-15Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd1st+1
2026-01-01Turfway Park?5th4th+1
2025-11-11Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd2nd+1
2025-05-28Horseshoe Indianapolis?7th7th0
2025-05-07Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/037/051/0118/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/03/20252nd11/271%88%+0.16
28/03/20253rd10/147%78%+0.30
23/04/20256th13/266%38%-0.28
07/05/20254th4/179%50%-0.29
28/05/20257th25/10%25%+0.25
11/11/20253rd20/10%75%+0.75
01/01/20265th12/137%56%+0.19
15/04/20262nd16/116%80%+0.64
18/08/20262nd1/195%88%-0.07