3
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8yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 58
Fairmount Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#9
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2024-09-02 | Louisiana Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-08-20 | Louisiana Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-08-06 | Louisiana Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-07-01 | Louisiana Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2024-06-18 | Louisiana Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 7-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength3%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/12/2022 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 15/05/2024 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 28/05/2024 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 18/06/2024 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/07/2024 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 06/08/2024 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 20/08/2024 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 02/09/2024 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 28/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |