5
What's Crackin
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 74
Fairmount Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
83%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-04-04 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength67%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 11/11/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 26/12/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 15/02/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 12/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 04/04/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 36% | -0.22 |
| 21/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 8/13 | 97% | 40% | -0.57 |
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |