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7

Lucky Monica

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 45

Fairmount Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength79%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 5 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: +1.6
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Fairmount Park 17/09/2024 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 5f Fas 117 · HIGHER CLASS17/09C6C6 @ Fairmount Park 09/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 34 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/09/2025 · OR 34 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 04/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 40 · 5f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 40 par4/10C6OR 40C6 @ Fairmount Park 21/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 43 · 1m 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/10/2025 · OR 43 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 14/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 44 · 5f Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/04/2026 · OR 44 par14/04C6OR 44C6 @ Fairmount Park 05/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 45 · 5f110y Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 45 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 53 · 1m Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 53 par16/05C6OR 53C6 @ Fairmount Park 26/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 49 · 1m Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 49 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 14/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 54 · 1m Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/07/2026 · OR 54 par14/07C6OR 54projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-14Fairmount Park?8th6th+2
2026-05-26Fairmount Park?1st-1th+2
2026-05-16Fairmount Park?3rd1st+2
2026-05-05Fairmount Park?3rd1st+2
2026-04-14Fairmount Park?3rd1st+2
2025-10-21Fairmount Park?3rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0921/1016/0514/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength14%

Delivery trend -4.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/09/20243rd6/168%67%-0.02
09/09/20252nd10/147%83%+0.36
04/10/20255th4/179%50%-0.29
21/10/20253rd9/276%67%-0.10
14/04/20263rd15/261%75%+0.14
05/05/20263rd9/153%67%+0.14
16/05/20263rd15/261%60%-0.01
26/05/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
14/07/20268th7/163%0%-0.63