Spicy Cantaloupe
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 56
Fairmount Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
51%
Place Prob
43%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-08-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-07-15 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +13.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 12/08/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 27/09/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |