3
Tizswiftysmusic
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 45
Fairmount Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-11-12 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-08-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength17%
Delivery trend +9.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 12/11/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |