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4

True Effect

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 51

Fairmount Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

46%

Place Prob

41%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength28%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 1.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Fairmount Park 25/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 37 · 5f110y 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 37 par25/08C6OR 37
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-25Fairmount Park?1st-1th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-4 · 50%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength53%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/08/20261st10/147%100%+0.53