2
Arose For Lyla
8yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 82
Fairmount Park · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
34%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 19/09/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 21/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 07/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 28/07/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 18/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |