5
Ghaaleb's City
7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 79
Fairmount Park · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
25%
Place Prob
28%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-05-30 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-07 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-09-19 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10/2024 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 22/04/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 26/08/2025 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 19/09/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 07/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 28/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 30/05/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 43% | -0.43 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |