4
Julynne
6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 86
Fairmount Park · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
41%
Place Prob
36%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-10-07 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-19 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/12/2024 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 06/05/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 15/07/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 19/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 07/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 28/10/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 18/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 08/09/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |