Adios Kid

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 72

Fairmount Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength57%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.5

Today:

Class gap: +1.0

Higher-class runs: 6

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-29	Fairmount Park	?	2nd	1st	+1	9.2
2026-08-04	Fairmount Park	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-06-23	Fairmount Park	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2
2026-06-02	Fairmount Park	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2
2026-05-12	Fairmount Park	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2
2026-04-18	Fairmount Park	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%

▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price

Trend▲

Strength14%

Delivery trend +2.6% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
27/09/2025	1st	15/2	61%	100%	+0.39
18/10/2025	1st	9/4	88%	100%	+0.12
28/10/2025	4th	13/8	91%	40%	-0.51
18/04/2026	5th	2/1	89%	20%	-0.69
12/05/2026	5th	4/1	79%	0%	-0.79
02/06/2026	5th	9/1	53%	20%	-0.33
23/06/2026	5th	15/2	61%	33%	-0.27
04/08/2026	3rd	14/1	26%	60%	+0.34
29/08/2026	2nd	10/1	47%	89%	+0.42