More Than Destiny
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 85
Fairmount Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-01-09 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2025-04-20 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-03-01 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/01/2024 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 16/02/2024 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 28/12/2024 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 01/03/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 20/04/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 09/01/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 18% | -0.34 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |